Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know

Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way¿relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making¿because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts. Key words: adaptive management; ambiguity; frames; framing; knowledge relationship; multiple knowledge frames; natural resource management; negotiation; participation; social learning; uncertainty; water managemen

Whose waters, whose nutrients? Knowledge, uncertainty, and controversy over eutrophication in the Mar Menor

This work explores the role of knowledge claims and uncertainty in the public dispute over the causes and solutions to nonpoint-driven overfertilization of the Mar Menor lagoon (Spain). Drawing on relational uncertainty theory, we combine the analysis of narratives and of uncertainty. Our results show two increasingly polarized narratives that deviate in the causes for nutrient enrichment and the type of solutions seen as effective, all of which relate to contested visions on agricultural sustainability. Several interconnected uncertainties are mobilized to dispute the centrality of agriculture as a driver for eutrophication and to confront strategies that may hamper productivity. Yet, both narratives rest on a logic of dissent that strongly relies on divergent knowledge to provide legitimacy, ultimately reinforcing contestation. Transforming the ongoing polarization dynamics may require different inter- and transdisciplinary approaches that focus on sharing rather than assigning responsibility and that unpack rather than disregard existing uncertainties.This research is funded by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva program MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/; and supported by María de Maeztu Excellence Unit 2023-2027 Ref. CEX2021-001201-M, funded by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033; and by the Basque Government through the BERC 2022-2025 program. The authors are grateful to the reviewers who kindly provided very detailed and useful comments

Multilingualism for pluralising knowledge and decision making about people and nature relationships

The need for a pluralistic approach to biodiversity conservation science and policy is increasingly being recognized. We argue that plural perspectives require multilingualism in the sources and processes. Unless the linguistic bias and the related issues in terms of legitimacy and validity, resistance to inclusion, and knowledge coproduction are meaningfully addressed, biodiversity science and its positive effects for conservation policy and practices will necessarily be limited. We propose a series of options to address the linguistic biases in biodiversity conservation science and policy, including extending and tightening collaboration with environmental humanities scholars from diverse traditions as well as researchers from diverse linguistic contexts. We conclude by showing how multilingualism is especially relevant for cross-scale and global biodiversity governance. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.This research was partially funded by Swiss National Science Foundation Grant No. P2SKP1_194948, and by Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2023‐2026 (Ref. CEX2021‐001201‐M), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033

Agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran

Ending hunger and ensuring food security are among targets of 2030 s SDGs. While food trade and the embedded (virtual) water (VW) may improve food availability and accessibility for more people all year round, the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trade needs to be revisited. In this research, we assess the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trades under two food security scenarios for Iran, a country suffering from an escalating water crisis. These scenarios are (1) Individual Crop Food Security (ICFS), which restricts calorie fulfillment from individual crops and (2) Crop Category Food Security (CCFS), which promotes eating local by suggesting food substitution within the crop category. To this end, we simulate the water footprint and VW trades of 27 major crops, within 8 crop categories, in 30 provinces of Iran (2005 2015). We investigate the impacts of these two scenarios on (a) provincial food security (FSp) and exports; (b) sustainable and efficient blue water consumption, and (c) blue VW export. We then test the correlation between agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators and provincial food security. Our results show that most provinces were threatened by unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption for crop production, particularly in the summertime. This water mismanagement results in 14.41 and 8.45 billion m3 y-1 unsustainable and inefficient blue VW exports under ICFS. Eating local improves the FSp value by up to 210% which lessens the unsustainable and inefficient blue VW export from hotspots. As illustrated in the graphical abstract, the FSp value strongly correlates with different agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators, but in different ways. Our findings promote eating local besides improving agro-economic and socio-environmental conditions to take transformative steps toward eradicating food insecurity not only in Iran but also in other countries facing water limitations. © 2021, The Author(s).We would like to thank the reviewers of the manuscript for their constructive comments. Thanks to Ms. Manuela Rosso—Brugnach for proofreading the article. This Project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Earth@lternatives Project, Grant agreement No 834716). Brugnach is supported by the Spanish Government through María de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2018–2022 (Ref. MDM-2017-0714) of BC3

Alternative societal solutions to pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment

Environmental contamination with pharmaceuticals is widespread, inducing risks to both human health and the environment. This paper explores potential societal solutions to human and veterinary pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. To this end, we adopt transition research’s multi-level perspective framework, which allows us to understand the dynamics underlying pharmaceutical emissions and to recognize social and technical factors triggering change. Our qualitative analysis is based on data collected through literature research and interviews with actors from pharmaceutical industry, the health and agricultural sector. The research aims at identifying potential future solutions including requirements for as well as barriers to pathways leading to these solutions and describing the role of key actors involved. The three alternative societal solutions identified are: 1) accepting pharmaceuticals in the environment - substantial changes to the system are not required; 2) reconfiguring the current system by implementing various innovations that reduce pharmaceutical emissions; 3) fundamentally changing the current system to (largely) avoid pharmaceutical emissions. The paper further elicits societal, financial, organizational, regulatory and technological requirements that can facilitate implementation of these solutions. This work is novel as it constitutes a systemic view on all stages of the pharmaceutical lifecycle, comprehensively synthesizing options and measures along the entire lifecycle into societal solutions that are framed as transition pathways. Deriving societal solutions from key actor’s perspectives is innovative and provides insights to reflect on choices societies are going to have to make regarding pharmaceuticals in the environment.The authors gratefully thank interviewees who allocated time to answer interview questions, shared valuable insights and expressed opinions. Thanks to G. Niebaum for feedback after a trial interview and to E. Aukes for methodological advice. Brugnach’s contribution was partially supported by the Spanish Government’s María de Maeztu excellence accreditation (Ref. MDM-2017-0714 ). The authors acknowledge funding by the European Regional Development fund of the European Union under the INTERREG project MEDUWA-Vecht(e) (project number 142118)

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. Keywords Framing - Uncertainty - Water management practic

Coping with Uncertainty in River Management:Challenges and Ways Forward

Coping with uncertainties is inherent to river management planning and policymaking. Yet, policymakers often perceive uncertainty as a complicating factor. We examine the challenges faced by policymakers when coping with uncertainties and provide an action perspective on how to best cope with these challenges to inform the policy debate. Integrating social and natural scientist’s perspectives on uncertainties and learning theories, we present a holistic, management perspective for coping with uncertainty. Based on a literature review about uncertainty concepts, strategies and learning, we identify three challenges in current river management: balancing social and technical uncertainties, being conservative and avoiding to end up a lock-in situation. We then provide a step-wise strategy and concrete actions for policymakers, which are illustrated with several examples. We conclude that coping with uncertainty may require paradigm shifts that can only be achieved through organisational learning. This, we claim, requires reflection, learning and flexibility of policymakers and their organisation

Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: incorporating the human dimension

In this paper, we extend the conceptualization of uncertainties in natural resources management. Uncertainties come in different kinds, as it is apparent from the multiple classifications and typologies of uncertainties in the literature. Here, we re-contextualize uncertainty in a broader way - its role, meaning and relationship with knowing and acting persons - because it is from this relationship where problems and solutions emerge. We argue that uncertainties have a relational aspect that has to do with how decision makers relate, through their knowledge and actions, to the human-technology-environmental systems to be managed ¿ an aspect that is not fully taken into account in the current literature. Our aim in this paper is to include the human dimension more fully in the conceptualization of uncertainties by (1) adding ambiguity as an important kind of uncertainty, (2) re-conceptualizing uncertainty as relational, and (3) indicating some implications of this reconceptualized overview for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management